I know of at least one ex-international rugby pundit who, when on television or hosting corporate events, checks his opinion research at the bookies. His theory is they know more than anyone as they don't want to give their money away, writes Emmanuel Kenning, reporter at Professional Broking.

To be fair his logic is hard to argue with. Opinions are two a penny in the world of 24 hour media. Backing them up with hard cash is another matter entirely. What then can we learn from the bookies about the general election?

Fixed odds

Let's start with some straight forward bets at William Hill wagering £10 at fixed odds. At the time of writing, a Conservative majority is priced at 15/8 which gives a return of £18.75, a Labour win pays £120 and the Liberals come in at £200 (plus your stake in all examples).

The most likely event according to the odds is a hung parliament at 8/15 meaning a return of £5.33 (plus your £10 stake).

For those who prefer more adventurous bets, then spread betting is an option. It is more complicated and involves the bookie giving a spread and you bet above the top end or below the bottom depending on what you think will happen. You can win (or lose) a lot more this way.

According to various blog sites back in November the spreads for seat wins by political party were: Conservative 352-357, Labour 208-213 and Liberal Democrats 50-53. Before the first debate, the spread for the Tories had moved to 327-332.

Now, two debates later, on Sporting Index the Conservative spread sits at 304-309 - below the magic number of 326 which provides a majority.

Another sign that a hung parliament is to be expected.

Baked beans

Reading some accounts in the press, if there is a hung parliament our best course of action is to buy a gas stove, a stock pile of baked beans and hunker down until the crisis is over.

I've never met a poor bookmaker, but they do make mistakes. However, I can't help but wonder if a hung parliament would really be that bad. Two party politics, no matter which way you dress it up, contributed to banks being nationalised and taxpayers subsidising duck houses for MPs.

What do you think? Will there be a hung parliament? Would it shake up politics for the better or will you be stocking up on baked beans?

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